Now You Know What I Think

26. April 2010 09:21
by nickolay_kolev
41 Comments

Lucky Us

26. April 2010 09:21 by nickolay_kolev | 41 Comments

I think we have been very lucky so far for not being discovered and visited by other intelligent species. Here is why. (Disclaimer: my conclusions are based on my Earth experience.)

First of all, I have no doubt we are not unique or an exception in the Universe. Organic molecules are something common and wide spread even in our Solar system. They are found in comets, asteroids and meteorites. It is probably worth mentioning that Saturn’s moon Titan has oceans of methane – one of the gases that life forms on Earth “emit”. Well, methane on Titan is in liquid form, but still – it is an ocean of organic stuff, full of icebergs of dry ice…

These traces of organic molecules found on so many extraterrestrial bodies in our Solar system show that the chances of evolved and intelligent life form on the rest of the 200-400 billion stars in our galaxy alone are actually pretty high. If you still have doubts, just repeat this number of stars in Milky Way few times, then write it down and look at it again. Then if you still in doubt, multiply that number by the estimated number of galaxies in the Universe – between 50 and 100 billion galaxies, based on the findings of the Hubble Space Telescope. ...

Just to make sure you understand this big numbers, the chances that we are alone in this humongous space-time continuum are 1 / (300billion times 75billion), if we take the medium numbers of the estimations mentioned earlier. This means the chances we are unique and exceptional are 1/225x1020.

You can, of course change the perspective, if assume we are the only ones, and say that the chances for an intelligent life to occur in the known Universe are 1/225x1020. Essentially this means that practically an intelligent life doesn’t exist. (This, in fact might be true, but could be a theme for another post).

Of course this is a huge speculation and dangerous play with big numbers, but I think big numbers are what you should play with, when it comes to life existence and evolution - numbers that represent things like “chances to occur”, “years of evolution” or any combination of these two plus other unknown factors. And if still not convinced and think that the speculation is too big, next time you are on the beach remember that the count of the sands grains on all of the Earth beaches is at least 5 times less than the stars in the Universe (assuming all Earth beaches are actually sand beaches, which is not true, hence the estimation should be much much higher).

Ok, now that we have established that it is very unlikely we are alone J, let’s see why I think we are lucky that no alien form has found us (and why should we keep it down, at least for a while, so we continue being the Milky Way's best kept secret).

Let's speculate what kind of civilization would start such an endeavor to fly crazy distances in the dark and cold space to come to pay us a visit?

First of all we should eliminate the young and the very old civilizations. The young ones because they don’t have the knowledge to do it (this puts us in that category too), the old ones – because they probably don’t care about wasting resources to deal with young to mid-age civilizations, simply because they can’t benefit from it.

Old civilizations have probably solved their energy, resource and other problems that occur when dealing with matter, so it is more likely they have turned into more spiritual beings and will not waste time to play with kids. They are probably in something like wizard/wisdom state and can be pictured as an old man with white hair and long beard, who talks mostly to himself because he can’t get into an interesting discussion with others, simply because they are not on his level of development and his understanding of the Universe.

Young civilizations are curious, want to explore, look at the sky and wonder, but have no power and knowledge to get across space and time. They are willing to sacrifice lives to gain knowledge. They are not our concern eather.

I think the mid-age civilizations (which should be much older than our civilization), are the ones that may start looking for other intelligence in the Universe. This kind of civilizations will have enough knowledge to get through space and time and travel between between stars.

What would be the reason for these civilizations to explore? Most likely the need of resources of some sort. They might be looking for energy resources, rear chemicals, metals or special gravity phenomenon or configurations of stars and planets that they can use for whatever purpose. Or they might look for cheap intellect to exploit. We do something like that already and call it “outsourcing”. It includes cheap labor, production of dangerous chemicals and components, stuff that is banned or very expensive to produce, because of regulations, laws and so on...

These guys will probably be some sort of carnivorous creatures. Why? If you are a pure vegetarian, you will require a lot of food. We also witness that vegetarian animals spend a lot of time (if not all of their time) eating. This leaves no time for mental development and scientific researches. Also being vegetarian ties you down to a very restricted area where your favorite plant grows. It is very hard to do explorations if you have to come back every hour or so for a snack. If you find a way to carry the food with you, you better be big and strong, because it is going to be a big package.

Space travel is going to be a problem for big guys that carry a lot of baggage. Even if they exist, they are stuck on the ground where their food is.

I am not saying it is not possible for vegetarian spices to evolve and space travel. An example would be the gorillas - give them few more million years and some lucky mutation and we will have another intelligence on our planet to compete with. Gorillas are heavier than humans, need a lot of bananas to survive, but yes - it is still doable and they still can be explorers. I am just saying that it is more probable for carnivorous in general to do the space traveling simply because they will pack foods that have higher energy concentration (hence smaller and liter).

So, we will be most likely visited by predators. Organized predators.

They might be civilized predators. Or might be really bad guys. It is not really important, because we are in trouble in any case, unless we can protect ourselves from them.

The worst case scenario will be if a civilization not mature enough that just got lucky and discovered or found a technology that allows them to space travel.

For example, imagine we find somewhere somehow ancient plans to build a machine that will allow us to travel between the stars and we can implement it with our technology. Or even better – we find the whole thing sitting somewhere, waiting to be used. What would be the result? Invasion. Exactly!

New gold diggers will emerge and start looking for easy bucks here and there. As a result the whole economy will collapse and of course we will be in constant wars. What would happen if we came across another civilization, not enough advanced technologically? I will let your imagination decide what we would do. That is why this is probably the worst case scenario for me – unprepared and immature civilization to start visiting other less developed civilizations.

The problem though is that even if space travel technology was not developed by some lucky scientist or by chance or just by lucky sequence of events, it still very likely will be a major collision and problem for us.

Predators have short temper, lots of mood swings, big ego, need to proof their physical power – you get the picture. Just like us, but with more brains, bigger guns, faster ships and more competition.

Now imagine dealing with these guys. We can’t figure out our own problems let alone add aliens with their problems. The conflict is inevitable event if the aliens come in peace...

The good news is that we are located in a very remote location and there is nothing much happening around us. Also the star density is very low, compare to the rest of the galaxy, and the distances between the stars are higher. This might be one of the problems for visitors to overcome, which will give us more time (to develop or kill ourselves).

But we should be aware that anybody passing by in the radius of 70 light years will know about us. Our radio broadcasting will reveal the existence of intelligent life form in our Solar system…

So, let’s hope our luck will not run out very soon and we will have another century or two to get smarter and stronger before we face another intelligent life form from outer space.

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